Assembly elections, domestic and global macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term.
Global Economy
Eurozone consumer price index rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in October after a 2.1 percent increase in September, final figures from Eurostat showed on 16th November 2018. Inflation was the highest since December 2012. Inflation again exceeded the European Central Bank’s target of below, but close to 2 percent. Core inflation, which excludes prices of volatile items such as energy, food, and alcohol and tobacco, rose to 1.1 percent from 0.9 percent in September. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI climbed 0.2 percent in October.
The UK was thrust into political turmoil on Thursday following a spate of resignations from Prime Minister Theresa May’s government, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, who said he could not accept the deal after the promises the ruling Conservative Party made to the country in an election manifesto last year.
On the US data front, first-time jobless claims for the week ending 10 November 2018 rose 2,000 to 216,000 in the week ended 10 November 2018. The Philly Fed index dropped 9.3 points to 12.9, a three-month low. The Empire State index rose 2.2 points to 23.3 in November.
India’s exports rose by 17.86% to $26.98 billion in October mainly due to the low base effect even as trade deficit widened to $17.13 billion, according to the commerce ministry data. Imports during October also rose by 17.62% to $44.11 billion, leading to widening of trade deficit to $17.13 billion. The deficit widened despite a steep decline of 42.9% in gold imports to $1.68 billion during the month under review. The trade gap was $14.61 billion in October 2017.
Global Market
On the global front, the US Durable Goods Orders data for October 2018 will be declared on 21 November 2018. The Japan inflation rate for October 2018 will be declared on 22 November 2018.
The US Markit Composite PMI for November 2018 will be unveiled on 23 November 2018. On the same day, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and US Markit Services PMI for November 2018 will also be unveiled.
Indian Market
Indian equity indices settled with small gains in the recently concluded week helped by recent weakness in crude oil prices and firmness in rupee against the US dollar.
In the week ended Friday, 16 November 2018, the Sensex gained 298.61 points or 0.84% to settle at 35,457.16, its highest closing level since 3 October 2018. The Nifty 50 index gained 97 points or 0.91% to settle at 10,682.20, its highest closing level since 3 October 2018.
The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 53.61 points or 0.35% to settle at 14,997.81. The BSE Small-Cap index fell 185.97 points or 1.26% to settle at 14,485.88.
On the political front, second phase of assembly elections will be held in Chhattisgarh on 20 November 2018. Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram will be held on 28 November 2018. Polling in Rajasthan and Telangana will be held on 7 December 2018. Counting of votes will be held across all the five states on 11 December 2018.
Sectoral Indices Trends:
The sectoral indices mostly closed in negative territory during last week. The S&P BSE Auto, IT and PSU index indices had declined by 1.6%, 1.2%, 0.71% and 0.4% respectively. S&P BSE Oil & Gas index and Bankex gained by 1.5% and 0.3% respectively during last week.
Currency
The Indian Rupee extended its recent gains and hit near 71.7 per US dollar in the week. Weakness in US dollar overseas and a firm equity market supported the INR. The currency ended around 71.90 levels.
