Transcript of the Podcast
Hi this is your editor Arjun Parthasarathy speaking. The Friday podcast is a value add feature for the followers of Investors are Idiots.com. The brief podcast will select one topic for analysis and will be released every Friday.
This week’s topic is on “ We were on the dot in our analysis for 2012 but what about 2013”
Equities have delivered the best returns in 2012 amongst all other asset classes. Equity returns for calendar 2012 to date have been over 20% for a few markets including India, US, Hong Kong and Germany while it has delivered between 10% and 20% for other markets except China, which is in the negative.
Investors are Idiots.com has been on the dot on our analysis for 2012 as we track the globe for research on markets. Regular followers of Investors are Idiots.com will have seen that we were positive on equities and bonds for 2012, positive on the US Dollar and negative on gold and other commodities. The Sensex and Nifty have returned over 20% in 2012 while Indian government bonds have returned around 11% in 2012. Our recommendations on stocks have largely been on track with our subscribers booking profits in a few stocks with returns ranging from 30% to 100% while many others stocks are well on their way to deliver target returns.
However as we always point out “Past performance is no indicator for future performance” and this applies to us. Hence we have to strive extra hard to come out right on our analysis for 2013. The year 2012 has been lucky for us as our analysis have turned out perfectly right but the fact is that we do not expect our analysis to come out right in one year. One year is too short a period for any fundamental analysis to turn out right.
We will give our analysis for 2013 but even as we give our analysis on where markets are headed and where should you invest your money, we will highlight that the analysis is expected to turn out right over the next two to three years or even five years. In fact we would be happy if our analysis does not turn out 100% right for 2013, as that means things are happening faster than it should and that always spells trouble for later years.
Wait for out analysis for 2013.
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